20 Institutional Intelligence Briefs — Before the Bell Rings
"Deeper than Bloomberg. Earlier than Wall Street."
Two companies at the front of the IPO queue — our deepest coverage, most comprehensive valuation frameworks, and highest conviction ratings.
Conviction: Very High | Starlink IPO Watch: 2026–2028
SpaceX is the most valuable private company in American history — worth more than Boeing, Lockheed Martin, Northrop Grumman, and Raytheon combined. Starlink generated an estimated $14B+ in 2025 revenue growing at 80%+ annually. Our brief models the Starlink standalone IPO as the highest-probability near-term liquidity event in private market history, with bull/base/bear valuation frameworks from $200B to $500B+.
Conviction: Very High | PBC Conversion Complete
OpenAI is approaching $1 trillion in valuation after the fastest consumer technology adoption in history. Its conversion to a Delaware Public Benefit Corporation in April 2026 cleared the final structural barrier to a public offering. Our brief dissects the restructured cap table, Microsoft's stake, Sam Altman's equity position, and the path to what could be the most consequential IPO since Google in 2004.
Every brief sourced from the Olympus Intelligence Research Desk — institutional-grade analysis with conviction ratings, valuation frameworks, and IPO timelines.
Databricks
Very High$134B Valuation · $5.4B ARR · 50%+ YoY Growth
The $134B data and AI platform at the front of the 2026 IPO queue. At $5.4B ARR growing 50%+, Databricks dwarfs Snowflake's revenue at IPO by 5x. Our brief models an $80B–$150B IPO valuation — near-certain in 2026.
Anthropic
Very High$380B Valuation · $30B ARR · $33.7B Total Raised
From $1B to $30B ARR — the fastest software revenue ramp in history. Backed by $8B from Amazon and $3B from Google. Claude Code alone runs at a $500M+ ARR run rate. The most consequential AI safety lab in the world.
Stripe
High — Strong Buy$70B Valuation · $1T+ Annual Payment Volume · 195 Countries
Processing more than $1 trillion in annual payment volume, Stripe has become the financial operating system of the internet. Our brief analyzes what finally pulls the IPO trigger and why the $70B valuation is either a bargain or a ceiling.
xAI
High$230B Valuation · $37B+ Raised · $3.3B+ Combined Revenue
Built in 3 years to a $230B valuation. Colossus — built in 122 days — is the world's largest AI training cluster. Grok is embedded in 600M monthly X users, Tesla vehicles, and U.S. DoD systems simultaneously.
Anduril
High$60B Valuation · $4.3B Projected Rev. · CCA Prime Contractor
The most consequential disruption of the U.S. defense industrial base in a generation. Lattice OS earned Anduril a CCA prime contractor role alongside General Atomics. Our brief targets a $35B–$80B IPO valuation window in 2026–2027.
Scale AI
High$29B Valuation · $1.4B+ ARR · Meta $14.3B Investment
The data infrastructure powering OpenAI, Google, Microsoft, Meta, and the U.S. DoD. Meta paid $14.3B for a 49% stake — the most decisive valuation signal in private AI markets.
Vast Data
Very High$9.1B Valuation · $118M Raised · AI Storage Leader
The AI infrastructure storage company that collapsed a multi-tier, multi-vendor stack into one unified platform. Backed by hyperscalers, defense agencies, and financial institutions who cannot run AI without it.
Quantinuum
HighS-1 Filed May 8, 2026 · $10B+ Pre-Money · $20B+ IPO Target
Quantinuum filed its S-1 for a Nasdaq IPO on May 8, 2026 — the largest quantum computing public offering in history. Backed by NVIDIA, JPMorgan, and Mitsui. This brief was written as the filing hit the wire.
Anysphere (Cursor)
High$29.3B Valuation · $1B+ ARR · $2.3B Series D
The fastest SaaS company in history — Anysphere reached $1B+ ARR faster than any software company on record. OpenAI attempted an acquisition. Our brief covers the unit economics tension beneath the explosive growth.
Plaid
High$8B Valuation · $546M ARR · 12K Banks · IPO 2026–2027
After the DOJ blocked Visa's $5.3B acquisition, Plaid rebuilt into the connective tissue of American fintech — 12,000+ institutions, 8,000+ apps, 500M+ consumer accounts. BlackRock called the last round "the final private fundraise before IPO."
Applied Intuition
High — Strong Buy$15B Valuation · $415M ARR · 18 of 20 Top OEMs · DoD
Serves 18 of the 20 largest global non-Chinese automakers and expanded into all-domain U.S. defense autonomy. $415M ARR growing at 100% YoY. Backed by BlackRock, Kleiner Perkins, and General Catalyst.
Ramp
High$13B Valuation · $1.6B+ Total Raised · 25K+ Customers
Every other corporate card profits when you spend more. Ramp profits when you spend less — the single most powerful differentiator in fintech today. Reached $100M ARR faster than Salesforce, Workday, and ServiceNow.
Polymarket
High — IV/V$9B ICE Deal · $15B Round in Progress · $9B+ 2024 Volume
Intercontinental Exchange (NYSE's parent) invested $2B at an $8B pre-money and became its global institutional data distributor. Volume surged from $73M in 2023 to $9B+ in 2024. CFTC cleared. US market re-entry complete.
Cognition (Devin)
High$10.2B Valuation · $73M ARR in 9 Months · <$20M Net Burn
Scott Wu built the world's first autonomous AI software engineer and went from $1M to $73M ARR in nine months on less than $20M lifetime net burn. Goldman, Citi, and Palantir are customers.
Cohere
High$7B Valuation · $240M ARR · 70%+ Gross Margins
Founded by co-authors of the "Attention Is All You Need" transformer paper. The enterprise AI stack Fortune 500 firms can actually deploy safely. CEO Aidan Gomez has signaled a 2026 IPO.
Perplexity AI
High$9B Valuation · 100M MAUs · 500M Queries/Mo
First credible challenger to Google's 25-year search dominance. 100M monthly active users, 500M+ monthly queries. Backed by SoftBank and NVIDIA. Our brief lays out the Google disruption thesis — and where it breaks down.
Kalshi
High — IV/V$130M+ Raised · CFTC DCM · Sequoia · Kravis · Schwab
America's first and only CFTC-designated contract market for event derivatives. Its 2024 federal court victory against the CFTC built a regulatory moat offshore platforms cannot replicate.
Physical Intelligence
High / Long Horizon$5.6B Val. → $11B+ Round in Talks · $1.1B Raised
Founded by world-leading robot learning researchers from Google DeepMind, UC Berkeley, and Stanford. Its π0 model is the most cited robot foundation model in global research. Backed by Jeff Bezos, CapitalG, OpenAI, and NVIDIA.
SpaceX
Very High$350B+ Valuation · $16B+ 2025 Est. Rev. · ~65% Launch Mkt Share
Most anticipated IPO in history targeting a $1.75T+ valuation. Starlink, Starshield, Starship, and a complete bull/base/bear valuation framework. 43-page institutional deep dive.
OpenAI
Very High$852B Valuation · $25B+ ARR · 1B+ ChatGPT Users
Most valuable private company in the world. PBC conversion complete. Full cap table analysis, Microsoft stake, Sam Altman's equity position, and the path to what could be the most consequential IPO since Google in 2004.
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For informational purposes only. Not investment advice. © 2026 Olympus Services Corporation.
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